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By Pam Chmiel,
Aside from rescheduling, 2024 could be a good year for the cannabis industry, given the positive activity percolating in the different states. As each state grapples with setting rules and regulations to roll out its cannabis industry successfully, the 
state-by-state patchwork of policy is laying the framework for nationwide legalization and business success. Hirsh Jain, founder of Ananda Strategy and an expert in government policy, shares his insights for this article.
Positive Prospects In Florida
67% of Florida citizens voted to include a marijuana legalization initiative on the Fall ballot. The Florida Supreme Court has an April 1st deadline to sign off on this being on the ballot. Many have been nervous, given Attorney General Ashley Moody’s vehement opposition and the court’s history of deeming similar initiatives unconstitutional twice before.
Hirsh Jain is optimistic the Florida Supreme Court will not stand in the way of the ballot. He believes the initiative was narrowly written to align with the single-subject rule for adding something to a ballot. People recognize that invalidating this measure would undermine the entire initiative process in Florida, a step too far even for conservative justices.
He also finds Governor DeSantis’s off-the-cuff comments on the Presidential trail intriguing. DeSantis’s suggestion that it was already on the ballot is telling, especially since he appointed many of those conservative justices. The concern was that DeSantis does not favor cannabis, and having issues like abortion and cannabis on the ballot tends to draw a more democratic turnout, which is not in his favor.
In addition, there’s a 60% threshold needed for it to pass, which may concern some cannabis advocates. However, Hirsh Jain reminds us that Florida passed its medical program with over 70% support, the most votes in history. It would be significant if one of the biggest red states in America showed support for cannabis, surpassing Ohio’s 57% support.
Florida is a huge state with 22 million people. Although other big states like California and New York have come online before, Florida’s rollout in a state with such a robust medical infrastructure looks promising.
California famously legalized adult use and made the colossal mistake of deeming 90% of the existing medical businesses illegal because of local control, where municipalities deemed 2,500 of the 3,000 medical dispensaries illicit and why it hasn’t reached its potential. New York also chose not to let the medical operators flip to adult use, and we see how lopsided that market is. Illinois is one of the few states with a robust medical infrastructure that transitioned to adult use. And that’s why it was such a successful rollout. That’s why Florida, a state of 22 million people and a medical program that has flourished for years, looks promising as a solid infrastructure ready to flip to recreational.
Michigan is one of the most successful markets in the country, with an even distribution of retail access all across the state, and Florida is teed up to be the same. Also similar to Michigan, Florida prices are competitive because of low taxes; you’re not paying more on top of the retail cost.
From a business perspective, Florida has long had a very rigid, limited license structure with a strict vertical integration requirement that only distributed 22 licenses in a state of 22 million people. Trulieve commands 30-40% of sales in the state, making it monopolistic and difficult for newcomers to catch up.
Lastly, Florida’s booming tourist economy, which draws 30 million visitors yearly, is where people go to have fun and lends itself to cannabis consumption. If Michigan can be a 3 billion dollar market, a state that sees far less tourism than Florida, then Florida should be a 6 billion dollar market or greater, predicts Jain.
Ohio’s Promising Turn to Legalization
In November, Ohio voted to legalize adult use by a healthy margin of 57 to 43, a significant achievement for a red state. Despite attempts by the State Legislature to revise the initiative, there hasn’t been solid political support due to overwhelming public response.
Furthermore, the initiative specifies that sales must start within ten months of passing, reassuring stakeholders. Ohio differs from places like Virginia, which legalized cannabis three years ago without a fixed date. GOP leaders opposing the initiative are voicing concern about the illicit market taking hold, emphasizing the need for a timely rollout.
Emergence of the Midwest as a Cannabis Hub
It’s been interesting to see the Midwest emerge as a power center for cannabis, which wasn’t the case a few years ago. If you look at Michigan and Illinois just as an example and put their two sales together, they generated almost half a billion dollars in one month; Michigan generated 280 million in sales in Illinois, another 200. So that’s almost half a billion in sales for a less mature market. Those two states together are about 22 million people. They did more in sales than California, which has 40 million people.
It’s exciting to see the Midwest emerge as a power center for cannabis. Ohio will add to the momentum because it borders several prohibition states and has the potential to attract customers across state lines because of its close proximity to urban centers. Cincinnati is on the Kentucky border and already has people flocking to its Hard Rock Casino, where people from Kentucky are used to driving. Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Charleston, West Virginia, are other cities that could drive sales into the state that are stuck on inertia and ignored any attempts at cannabis reform despite the popular support for cannabis.
Pennsylvania’s Potential Path To Legalization
Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman and Governor Shapiro have advocated for legalization, and Shapiro views cannabis as a conduit for funding social programs. Ohio’s robust sales from bordering states may push the opposition over the line.
Maryland Addresses True Needs Of Social Equity Entrepreneurs
New York’s efforts to prioritize social equity entrepreneurs for licenses backfired, resulting in a slew of lawsuits and legal injunctions. Coupled with high taxes and a thriving illicit market that faces no legal consequences, New York’s program appears to have inadvertently harmed the very individuals it aimed to assist. The crucial needs for social equity entrepreneurs extend beyond simply being first to market; they require robust mentorship, access to capital, and a lower barrier to entry into the industry.
Maryland takes a pragmatic approach to social equity, contrasting sharply with New York’s ideological stance. It mandates that medical dispensaries seeking early access to the market must implement an incubation program for social equity micro-businesses, offering them guidance and a solid business framework for growth. Additionally, Maryland has introduced a grant program to provide financial support, a departure from New York’s unfulfilled promises of funding.
Notably, Maryland boasts a low tax rate of 9% and a streamlined licensing process. Under Governor Wes Moore’s leadership, the state prioritizes consumer safety and access to quality cannabis products while fostering opportunities for equity applicants to participate in the market. Jain applauds Maryland’s approach, which allows existing operators to transition to adult use while issuing new licenses to equity applicants and providing safe and tested products to consumers while the market takes shape.
Anticipating The Impact Of November 2024 Ballot Measures
Ballot initiatives for marijuana legalization often find success during presidential elections. For instance, in 2020, New Jersey, Montana, and Mississippi all passed legalization measures, while 2014 saw Colorado and Washington legalize cannabis. South Dakota is moving towards a 2024 ballot initiative, marking their third attempt. The first attempt was invalidated by Governor Christine Noam, which many view as undemocratic, and the second garnered only 47% support, though it occurred during an off-election year.
Arkansas has maintained a longstanding medical program and aims to expand it through a ballot initiative by easing barriers to medical card eligibility and broadening the list of qualifying conditions. Currently under review by the Attorney General, this initiative requires a specific number of signatures before proceeding to the ballot.
Arkansas’ proposed medical expansion plan presents a promising model for states seeking a more gradual approach to cannabis legalization. It offers opportunities for a wider range of medical professionals to issue prescriptions and proposes to peel back regulations on medical businesses.
Despite being one of the few remaining prohibited states, Nebraska is making strides toward getting cannabis legalization on the November ballot. While some may overlook it due to its size, the growing number of states legalizing medical cannabis, currently at 38, is reshaping the national conversation around cannabis policy. This progress is particularly exciting, notes Jain, as it influences discussions at the federal level.
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